Kodi kuyamikira kwa RMB kwayamba? (Mutu 1)

Kuyambira mu July, mitengo ya RMB ya pamtunda ndi m'mphepete mwa nyanja ya RMB yotsutsana ndi dola ya US yawonjezeka kwambiri, ndipo inagunda malo okwera kwambiri pa August 5. Pakati pawo, RMB ya pamtunda (CNY) inayamikiridwa ndi 2.3% kuchokera pansi pa July 24 . Ngakhale kuti inabwerera pambuyo pa opaleshoni yotsatila, kuyambira pa August 20, ndalama za RMB zotsutsana ndi dola ya US zimayamikiridwabe ndi 2% kuyambira July 24. Pa August 20, ndalama za RMB za m'mphepete mwa nyanja motsutsana ndi dola ya US zinagundanso kwambiri. pa Ogasiti 5, kuyamikira ndi 2.3% kuchokera pamalo otsika pa Julayi 3.

Kuyang'ana msika wamtsogolo, kodi mitengo yosinthira RMB motsutsana ndi dollar yaku US idzakwera m'mwamba? Tikukhulupirira kuti ndalama za RMB zomwe zilipo potengera dollar yaku US ndikungodalira pang'onopang'ono chifukwa cha kuchepa kwachuma cha US komanso kuyembekezera kutsika kwa chiwongola dzanja. Malinga ndi kusiyana kwa chiwongoladzanja pakati pa China ndi United States, chiopsezo cha kuchepa kwakukulu kwa RMB chafowoka, koma m'tsogolomu, tiyenera kuwona zizindikiro zowonjezereka za chuma cha m'banja, komanso kusintha kwachuma. Mapulojekiti akuluakulu ndi mapulojekiti apano, mitengo isanakwane RMB motsutsana ndi dollar yaku US ilowa m'gulu la chiwongola dzanja. Pakalipano, mtengo wosinthira wa RMB motsutsana ndi dollar yaku US chikuyembekezeka kusinthasintha mbali zonse ziwiri.

Chuma cha US chikuyenda pang'onopang'ono, ndipo RMB ikuyamikira mwapang'onopang'ono.
Kuchokera pazomwe zatulutsidwa pazachuma, chuma cha US chawonetsa zizindikiro zodziwikiratu zakufooka, zomwe zidayambitsa nkhawa za msika pakugwa kwachuma kwa US. Komabe, potengera zisonyezo monga kugwiritsa ntchito komanso ntchito zogwirira ntchito, chiwopsezo cha kugwa kwachuma ku US chikadali chochepa kwambiri, ndipo dola yaku US sinakumanepo ndi vuto lazachuma.

Msika wa ntchito watsika, koma sudzagwa. Chiwerengero cha ntchito zatsopano zomwe sizinali zaulimi mu July zinatsika kwambiri mpaka 114,000 mwezi-pa-mwezi, ndipo chiwerengero cha kusowa kwa ntchito chinakwera kufika pa 4.3% kuposa momwe ankayembekezera, zomwe zinayambitsa "Sam Rule" kutsika kwachuma. Ngakhale kuti msika watsika pansi, chiwerengero cha anthu omwe achotsedwa ntchito sichinatsike, makamaka chifukwa chiwerengero cha anthu ogwira ntchito chikuchepa, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti chuma chayamba kuzizira ndipo sichinayambe kugwa.

Njira zogwirira ntchito zamakampani opanga ndi ntchito aku US ndizosiyana. Kumbali imodzi, pali chitsenderezo chachikulu pakuchepa kwa ntchito zopanga. Potengera ndondomeko ya ntchito ya US ISM yopanga PMI, kuyambira pomwe Fed idayamba kukweza chiwongola dzanja koyambirira kwa 2022, index yawonetsa kutsika. Pofika Julayi 2024, index inali 43.4%, kutsika kwa 5.9 peresenti kuchokera mwezi watha. Kumbali inayi, ntchito m'makampani othandizira zimakhalabe zolimba. Kuwona index ya ntchito ya US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, kuyambira Julayi 2024, index inali 51.1%, kukwera ndi 5 peresenti kuchokera mwezi watha.

Poyerekeza ndi kutsika kwachuma kwachuma cha US, index ya dollar yaku US idatsika kwambiri, dola yaku US idatsika kwambiri poyerekeza ndi ndalama zina, ndipo maudindo aatali a hedge funds pa dollar yaku US adatsika kwambiri. Deta yomwe idatulutsidwa ndi CFTC idawonetsa kuti kuyambira sabata ya Ogasiti 13, thumba lalitali la thumba la US dollar linali maere 18,500 okha, ndipo gawo lachinayi la 2023 linali loposa 20,000.